Most government stimulus packages end this year. As of mid-2011 mortgage lending continues to be in disarray and employment, while not double-digit, is above 8%. Oh, and there’s this little thing called a presidential election occurring in November of 2012. And not one of these facts will influence the sustainability of the American economy in 2012.My thoughts on the economy:The American economy will continue to expand with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) near 3% through 2012.
Unemployment will remain in the 8% range as employees re-tool their skills and baby-boomers defer retirement based on the depth of this most recent recession.
Residential housing will continue to struggle as the home-ownership rate decreases.
Housing prices will begin to stabilize in 2013 (or later) only because population growth will begin to out-strip supply.In 2012 stimulus is behind us and residential mortgage lending will remain tight. Federal Reserve policy does not affect employment and the presidential election is towards the end of the year. Where do we find guidance, reliable guidance about the course of the American economy?Start with Facts, Economic Facts